Job cuts and layoffs are constantly on the news cycle. Canada may be better insulated against extreme financial hardships from global financial conditions. The majority of the world is not so lucky. One example of extreme financial hardships across the ocean can be found with Lebanon, which finds itself in a triple financial crisis. Lebanon’s currency has collapsed, its banking system is insolvent, and the government has defaulted on its debt. And there are signs that more countries may experience similar outcomes. Another factor that might be getting overlooked is how Lebanon is located in the powder keg of the Middle East and extreme economic hardships have serious potential to create major insecurity in the region.
As Canadians, “freedom,” ”peace,” and ”having best friends for neighbors” might be the three things we take for granted most. Some Canadians, however, know how important those really are. For Canadians less familiar, take a look at some of the videos of the chaos and destruction originating from Ukraine, Israel, Gaza, and. more recently, the Congo. Different places, similar problems, and heartbreaking loss of life—maybe that is what separates victims of circumstances from the lucky winners.
Over the years, through my travels, my community involvement, and hearing peoples’ stories, I have come to realize the magnitude of what some people have had to persevere. That includes all of Canada’s immigration waves that have involved fleeing extreme environments like wars in Vietnam, Iraq, Somalia, and the former Yugoslavia. Understanding the impact that such experiences have on people has led me, almost 30 years later, to tell many of my families’ friends, as well as parents and grandparents of childhood friends how I am at awe at what they had to go through and what they had to overcome and how they managed to experience success in life after everything.
How they respond when they hear me say it is universal, their eyes get watery. Even when chatting with the parents and grandparents of my friends whose backgrounds are from other war-torn places, their eyes get watery too. Nobody knows volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity better than them.
The “VUCA” Acronym
“VUCA” is an acronym that stands for vulnerability, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity. It was a term I first heard used during a program I took at Harvard Kennedy School that focused on leadership and character in uncertain times. The thinking behind the acronym is that it is supposed to provide a roadmap to four key ways to dissect environmental challenges, and how to think about them to be able to adapt. The “VUCA” approach can be a good approach from everything ranging from organizational challenges to solving global conflict.
Volatility is meant to describe a challenge that may be unexpected or unstable and with no expiry date. However, that does not mean that the challenge is hard to understand, just that it can be unpredictable at times. The only way to deal with volatility is to be prepared to respond to changes.
Uncertainty is meant to describe a challenge that lacks information, but where the basic factors are understood. It may be resolved, but there is no guarantee. The best way to deal with uncertainty is to gather as much information as possible related to the structure of the challenge and how it may change, to reduce ongoing uncertainty.
Complexity is meant to describe a challenge that is interconnected with different parts and has different variables. Some aspects of the challenge may be known but there may be an overwhelming number of intersections making it complicated to deal with. The best way to deal with complexity is by building up resources and through expertise.
Ambiguity is meant to describe a challenge that lacks clarity, perhaps with unknown unknowns, where even the most basic aspects are unclear. The only way to deal with ambiguity is to experiment with different hypotheses and testing them, which should be broad as necessary.
The acronym can be summarized by explaining that it comes down to predicting the results of one’s actions and to gage one’s understanding of a situation and its conditions. Ultimately, “VUCA” is a concept that can be incorporated into strategic framework and forecasting, not just a how-to roadmap when comes to challenges, and a good lens to apply at every level of thinking.
VUCA exists at both a macro level and micro level.
When I went to Colombia in 2017, it was with an NGO and I spent some time getting to know the problems that plagued Bogota, then going to more remote towns known for their extreme sports. The home in Bogota was a home owned by the NGO and it hosted individuals from around the world.
The home was quite spacious, and the main feature was a wooden table where everyone had breakfast, lunch, and dinner together. My first morning I was greeted by Shanae, an Australian that was living in Colombia and responsible for coordinating and organizing everything. Shanae was in charge, but she was not strict, and she had one of the best personalities out of anyone I have ever met. Shanae with her joyful mannerisms and laugh was Australian as Australian gets.
When we had breakfast that first morning, everyone was introducing themselves and they had me trying to guess where they were from. I remember Shanae and Oscar, who was British, joking around about whose accent was better, and all of us laughing.
Although everyone was expected to be back at the house well before midnight, every night our group would always come back in the early morning hours, and it was Shanae who let us in. Then the next day we would laugh at some of the crazy culture shocks. She just embodied the fun and pleasant nature that Australians are known for, and she had also wanted to go extreme sporting with a few of us but had obligations elsewhere.
In 2021, Shanae Brooke found herself on an excursion in Georgia, going on a hike during some spare time. Sadly, Shanae would end up getting attacked during her hike and losing her life, with her attacker eventually getting sentenced to jail. Shanae’s life was stolen from her not because she was the kind of person that would ever make anyone feel bad about who they were or look down upon someone. The reason she lost her life can be summed up by the acronym, “VUCA”.
Looking back, countries like Colombia and Georgia are extremely volatile, unpredictable, and complex with their own ambiguous risks, where activities that would be safe in Canada or Australia are likely to have serious risk to them. A macro look under a VUCA lens would differ from a micro one, but volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity exist across all levels.
Learning about what happened to Shanae had me thinking about how some statistics indicate that around 70% of all Americans are being medicated for different health and wellness conditions, and that numbers is similar in Canada. But what about less developed and less stable countries? What about places where people can not get access to medication for their health? What about the people in those places that have grown up in the war experience and experienced violence, in places where people are just expected to pick themselves up and continue?
These questions may not be reflective of our realities, but they do represent the kind of realities that most of the world’s people have to face. Nonetheless, they highlight some of the different aspects to life that need to be taken into consideration when it comes to understanding how volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity manifest in different areas of the world.
